Reply to "Difference between "will" and "would""

Here is another question:

What is the difference between will and would in the following context?

  • John: Hey Subha, did you know Lionel Messi has got a huge offer from PSG to join them? What do you think about the proposal? Me: Thanks for the news. No, I did not know about it. Messi has been with FCB for almost 12 years and has good relations with the club. I don't think He will/would leave FCB.
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