It is true that the use of conditional "would" can be deemed to involve the implicit existence of a type 2 conditional clause (i.e., a conditional clause in the unreal past) in the context:
- Why the US would never win a trade war with China (if there was/were a trade war between both countries)
- I don't think he would leave FCB (if he was/were offered a lot of money).
However, it is no less true that "would" can be used to emphazise the improbability of the event even if the condition is actually present. I think we can certainly say things like these:
- It's undeniable that there is a trade war between the US and China. However, I am of the opinion that the US would never win it. (To express more certainty: I am of the opinion that the US will never win it.)
- Messi has been offered a lot of money to join PSG. However, I don't think he would leave FCB, no matter how big other offers can be. (To express more certainty: I don't think he will leave FCB.)