not

Hi,
Please take a look at (1):

(1) I don't think that all the time bombs will explode until 6:00. (Jackendoff 1971)

I'd like you to focus on "not." My questions is,

What role does the negative particle have in this case?

(2) disbelief:
I think that not all the time bombs will explode until 6:00.
(3) not-belief (I DON'T think that...):
It is not the case that I think that all the time bombs will explode until 6:00.

The more I think about it, the more uncertain I am, because both seem to have this in common:
(4) It is not the case that all the time bombs will explode until 6:00.

But I think if forced, I'd choose (2).
What do you think?
Thank you in advance
Seiichi MYOGA
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